Page 82 - Mocarelli, Luca, and Aleksander Panjek. Eds. 2020. Maize to the People! Cultivation, Consumption and Trade in the North-Eastern Mediterranean (Sixteenth-Nineteenth Century). Koper: University of Primorska Press
P. 82
maize to the people!
sumption is that in a period of population growth, families tend to be larg-
er than in phases of decline. This effect may be due to an increase in fertil-
ity, i.e. more children per household, but also to a decline in mortality, i.e.
more members per household distributed in other age groups. The fourth
and last variable is the percentage of deaths and emigrants out of the to-
tal population of 1628. It has already been said that these data are incom-
plete, but I wanted to take into account, at least partially, the effects of the
1629 crisis on the population. The hypothesis is that the more consistent the
loss of population during the crisis, the smaller the population growth re-
corded between the pre-famine data and 1656. The results of the model are
shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Determinants of the increase of population in Friuli (1628-1656)
Maize/other cereals Coef. P>t
Kg of cereals per inhabitant 0.212 0.005
No. of family members -0.062 0.118
% of deaths and emigrants between 1628 and 1629 0.088 0.006
-0.008 0.045
Number of obs 116
F (4, 111) 4.30
Prob > F 0.003
Adj R-squared 0.10
To make the table easier to read, I would like to state that the sign
of the coefficient (second column) indicates whether the relationship be-
tween the variable considered is direct (positive value) or inverse (negative
value) with respect to population growth, while the higher its value, the
greater its influence. The third column of the table indicates whether these
values are statistically significant. Following a consolidated practice in the
social sciences, values lower than 0.05 are considered significant. Below this
threshold, the smaller the data shown, the more certain the result achieved.
Having said this, when we look at the results of the model, we can see that
the share of maize among other cereals is positively correlated with popu-
lation growth. In communities where there was more maize, therefore, the
population grew a little faster. On the contrary, the amount of cereals avail-
able per capita is not a significant data. This aspect was expected and it is
consistent with the starting hypothesis that the source is not reliable be-
80
sumption is that in a period of population growth, families tend to be larg-
er than in phases of decline. This effect may be due to an increase in fertil-
ity, i.e. more children per household, but also to a decline in mortality, i.e.
more members per household distributed in other age groups. The fourth
and last variable is the percentage of deaths and emigrants out of the to-
tal population of 1628. It has already been said that these data are incom-
plete, but I wanted to take into account, at least partially, the effects of the
1629 crisis on the population. The hypothesis is that the more consistent the
loss of population during the crisis, the smaller the population growth re-
corded between the pre-famine data and 1656. The results of the model are
shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Determinants of the increase of population in Friuli (1628-1656)
Maize/other cereals Coef. P>t
Kg of cereals per inhabitant 0.212 0.005
No. of family members -0.062 0.118
% of deaths and emigrants between 1628 and 1629 0.088 0.006
-0.008 0.045
Number of obs 116
F (4, 111) 4.30
Prob > F 0.003
Adj R-squared 0.10
To make the table easier to read, I would like to state that the sign
of the coefficient (second column) indicates whether the relationship be-
tween the variable considered is direct (positive value) or inverse (negative
value) with respect to population growth, while the higher its value, the
greater its influence. The third column of the table indicates whether these
values are statistically significant. Following a consolidated practice in the
social sciences, values lower than 0.05 are considered significant. Below this
threshold, the smaller the data shown, the more certain the result achieved.
Having said this, when we look at the results of the model, we can see that
the share of maize among other cereals is positively correlated with popu-
lation growth. In communities where there was more maize, therefore, the
population grew a little faster. On the contrary, the amount of cereals avail-
able per capita is not a significant data. This aspect was expected and it is
consistent with the starting hypothesis that the source is not reliable be-
80
