Page 4 - Management 18 (2023), številka 2

Ajda Fošner | Foresight Methods for Sustainability in Higher Education

several million years to develop and have been Foresight Methods for Sustainability
declining rapidly since the 18th century. Human- Foresight techniques are crucial for predicting
ity is using resources faster than they can grow the future and making plans in a wide range of
back. This rapid growth has a number of conse- industries. These methods comprise a range of
quences for us. Let us list just some of them (Na- methodical techniques, tools, and procedures
tional Intelligence Council 2012). that help people, groups, and society compre-
hend likely future events, challenges, and oppor-
1. Social inequality: The richest one percent of
the world’s population owns more wealth tunities.
Fundamentally, foresight methods aim to
than the other 99% combined. In 2002 the advance beyond traditional forecasting by con-
proportion was 43%. sidering a diversity of plausible future outcomes
2. Water and food: 40% more water and 35% rather than a single conclusion. As a result, stake-
more food will be needed in 2030.
3. Economy: Economic growth in emerging holders are better equipped to make informed
markets will lead to more technological decisions and take preventative action by helping
innovation worldwide. to spot new patterns, forces of change, and po-
4. Migration: In the next 30 years, 200 million tential disruptions.
Foresight strategies are used in many academ-
climate refugees will be threatened; curren- ic and industrial domains. They assist business
tly, there are 20 million.
5. Urbanization: In 2005, 49.1% (4 billion pe- and industry with strategic planning, product
ople) of the world’s population lived in citi- development, and innovation by identifying new
es. By 2030, this share is predicted to reach markets, consumer trends, and technological ad-
60% (4.9 billion people). vancements. In governance and policymaking,
foresight approaches support long-term plan-
6. Growth of population: In 2020 (as of August), ning, policy development, and risk management.
there are 7.8 billion people living in this In fields including science and technology, edu-
world; in 2030 there will be 8.3 billion people.
cation, healthcare, environmental sustainability,
and social development, a proactive approach to
Foresight methods are closely tied to sus- forecasting and influencing the future is essential.
tainability because they provide helpful tools for Foresight is advantageous in each of these fields.
understanding, forecasting, and influencing the These methods include concepts from a wide
future in a way that supports sustainable devel- range of various disciplines, such as scenario
opment. They are strategic techniques that aid in planning, futures studies, expert consultations,
planning and foresight, giving stakeholders the trend analysis, simulation modelling, horizon
power to make informed decisions and shape scanning, and more. According to the objectives,
desired outcomes. These methods are crucial for surroundings, and resources at hand, certain
identifying emerging patterns, risks, and oppor- methods are selected.
tunities in the sustainability environment as well Individuals and organizations can negotiate
as for guiding the development of sustainable uncertainties, seize opportunities, and promote
plans and practises. Higher education institu- resilience in a fast-changing environment by en-
tions can anticipate and adjust to changing social gaging in foresight activities. By doing so, they
demands and global trends by using foresight can better grasp probable future trajectories.
approaches because they provide a systematic Popper (2008) defines 33 foresight methods
framework for studying and addressing compli- which are divided into three groups: qualitative,
cated sustainability issues. quantitative and semi-quantitative.
In the following sections, we will highlight the In order to investigate potential future situa-
significance of foresight methods in the context tions and trends, qualitative foresight approach-
of sustainability and their applicability within es collect and analyse expert opinions, subjective
higher education. We will introduce key connec- data, and insights. These methods are particular-
tions between foresight methods and sustaina- ly useful when dealing with complex, uncertain,
bility and explore how these methods can be ef- and qualitative aspects of the future: Backcast-
fectively utilized to enhance strategic planning, ing, Brainstorming, Citizens Panels, Conferenc-
curriculum development, research prioritization, es/Workshops, Essays/Scenario Writing, Expert
and institutional transformation towards sus- Panels, Genius Forecasting, Interviews, Litera-
tainability. ture Review, Morphological Analysis, Relevance

52 management 18 (2023) številka 2